It’s no secret that the rail industry is going through a time of great change. With an ageing workforce reaching retirement, a new government, and ongoing industry reforms, it’s an uncertain time. But for individuals seeking new opportunities and companies searching for staff, 2025 will bring opportunities as well as challenges. RailStaff looks at the trends expected to influence recruitment in the year ahead.
First, the not-so-great news. Toward the end of 2024, research from the Railway Industry Association (RIA) indicated that recruitment freezes were likely this year. More than half (51%) of those surveyed by RIA’s Annual survey of rail business leaders said they planned to freeze or slow down recruitment in response to a predicted hiatus in rail work over the next 12 months.
Rail reform related to the formation of Great British Railways (GBR), along with uncertainty over rail enhancements and major project budgets, were major concerns shared by 83% of business leaders who took part in the research. In response, companies surveyed said they planned to freeze or slow recruitment (51%), prioritise work outside the UK (51%), and pause or slow plans to expand in the UK (35%).
That said, RIA’s survey was carried out ahead of 30 October’s autumn budget which confirmed a number of major projects, including HS2 from Old Oak Common to Euston. The budget also committed the government to publishing a long-term rolling stock ‘pipeline’ which, RIA said, would give greater confidence to businesses.
Nonetheless, the research is not a comforting read.
“The conclusions of the survey reflect a second year of rail supply leaders being concerned about the outlook for the wider UK rail market and anxiety about their own business’s prospects more specifically,” said RIA Chief Executive Darren Caplan.
“Over 80% forecast a hiatus in work in the year ahead, with a detailed timeline for rail reform or firm commitments for the delivery of major projects still awaited. This uncertainty adversely impacts recruitment, expansion plans, and suppliers, who will seek refuge in other sectors and overseas markets if more confidence fails to return.”
Skills required
RIA’s research suggests something of a paradox. While industry has indicated it is hesitant to hire, there remains a high demand for skilled workers. A key driver of this demand is the longstanding challenge of the industry’s ageing workforce, and the skills gap that will widen as staff reach retirement age.
Twenty-eight percent of rail workers are over the age of 50 according to the National Skills Academy for Rail (NSAR) and, by 2030, approximately 50,000 employees are expected to retire. The NSAR 2024 Rail Workforce Survey shows that there are clear areas where consistent workforce shortfalls exist, including signalling & telecoms, systems engineering, and electrification & plant. The gaps typically range between 2,000 and 3,000 people per year.
To address this skills shortage, the industry has launched recruitment initiatives aimed at attracting younger workers to the rail industry. One notable proposal includes lowering the minimum age for train drivers from 20 to 18, thereby expanding the potential workforce.
The Rail Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) released research on the feasibility of reducing the minimum age in September last year. It showed that existing training, competence, and safety systems could be deployed for younger entrants, so no new cost or special allowances need to be brought in. An 18-year-old, regardless of their background, is just as capable of training to become a train driver as a 20-year-old, said RSSB, and experience, rather than age, is a better predictor of driver performance.
Commenting, RSSB CEO Mark Phillips said: ‘’Encouraging more school leavers to take up train driving apprenticeships is what our railways need. The prospect of joining the profession is more attractive to people at 18 than at 20, where the idea might be old news as you have already chosen a different path.”
Streamlining processes
RSSB also recently made changes to its driver recruitment standards, which should make the recruitment process more efficient and effective. On 7 December, the body released a tranche of new and updated standards including an update to the psychometric assessments used in train driver recruitment.
All potential train drivers undertake a psychometric assessment to make sure they are psychologically fit for the role. The standard has been updated after research and feedback from industry found the guidance was inconsistent and out of step with good practice.
The update should enable the industry to use a more efficient and effective psychometric assessment process that, while remaining robust, is easier to follow. It also increases the number of psychometric assessments a candidate can make from two to three and clarifies the timescales and validity of these tests. This will enhance the train driver recruitment process by making it more attractive to potential candidates.
Additional RSSB research will boost opportunities by allowing more people with colour vision deficiency (colour blindness) to work in a number of safety critical railway roles.
The Ishihara test, which is commonly used to check for colour vision deficiency, works by presenting a series of coloured plates with numbers or patterns hidden within a field of dots, and identifies colour-deficient vision. However, it does not reveal the degree of any colour vision loss, meaning people only slightly affected by the condition may stlll be able to safely perform the role.
RSSB was asked to look into this problem by ASLEF, which was concerned some drivers were being removed from duties having failed the Ishihara test on a colour vision deficiency that didn’t impact their ability to safely perform their role.
RSSB’s research has identified a new two-step approach to colour vision assessment. The Ishihara test remains the primary screening test, with 100% correct answers needed to pass. Any applicants who fail can then take a more detailed Colour Assessment and Diagnosis (CAD) test to determine the specific degree of their colour vision deficiency.
RSSB’s analysis shows this new approach could allow approximately 47% of people currently failing the Ishihara test to be assessed as safe to perform the role.
“For years, people with minor colour blindness have not been able to work in safety critical jobs on the railway, said Luisa Moisio, RSSB’s director of research. “This could be discriminatory, breaching equality law, by preventing capable people from being considered for employment.
“Our research has identified a more thorough testing process to establish if someone with colour blindness can safely perform a role. We are now changing medical Standards to implement this new fairer testing system, giving more people an opportunity to join the railway family.”
Specialised salaries
The skills gap also creates a premium for specialised workers, as evidenced by increased salary demands. Built environment & technical recruitment specialist Carrington West released its 2025 Rail Salary Survey & Guide in January. The report provides insights into salary trends and recruitment challenges across the rail sector, as well as further reports for the built environment the company recruits for.
Its outlook for 2025 is fairly positive, with demand for skilled workers set to increase steadily throughout the year with salary increases expected to attract professionals back into the sector and to secure new hires as projects get off the ground.
A consistent theme across all disciplines has been a slow start to CP7 projects resulting in a sluggish recruitment market in 2024. Fortunately, following the transport budget in October, and the allocation of most CP7 frameworks, new work has been injected into the railway and Carrington West predicts an uptick in recruitment toward the end of the year.
Committed to apprenticeships
Despite the differences of opinion on recruitment trends, the industry remains committed to apprenticeships. Most recently, the Rail Delivery Group announced its ambition to see 2,000 apprentices recruited in 2025 and 10,000 over the next five years.
This comes just as the Government has announced measures to reform the apprenticeship system, aiming to increase flexibility, reduce bureaucracy, and boost economic growth. Key reforms include shortening the minimum duration of apprenticeships from 12 months to eight and providing employers with flexibility to determine English and maths requirements for apprentices aged 19 and over.
Bridget Phillipson, the Secretary of State for Education, has said she anticipated that these changes will enable up to 10,000 additional apprenticeships across all industries per year.
This news has been welcomed by the NSAR which says many aspects of the reforms could deliver greater flexibility to employers in the industry. The mandatory 12-month duration requirement in apprenticeships, for example, has been a longstanding challenge in the rail sector, and attainment rates have been disproportionately affected by rigid timelines.
In addition to this, new research from Network Rail to mark February’s National Apprenticeship Week, revealed that over half of its respondents (51%) would consider an apprenticeship if they were to restart their career.
The findings highlight the appeal of apprenticeships as a valuable pathway into the workforce, with over three quarters of all adults (86%) believing that apprenticeships are a great way to kick-start a career. The value of apprenticeships is therefore clearly understood.
Richard Turner, Network Rail’s head of apprenticeships, said: “We’re really committed to investing in the future talent that we need to build, maintain, and run Britain’s railway, and apprentices are a vital part of that.
“We want to attract more apprentices to the railway and are looking forward to working with Skills England to offer shorter, more flexible railway apprenticeships, helping us maximise our Skills & Growth Levy which aims to strengthen the connection between the education and rail sectors.
“Our schemes have no upper age limits and are suitable for anyone and everyone wanting to build a career in the railway. You don’t need to follow a traditional university path to make a real impact in an industry that keeps millions moving every day – all that we ask is that our applicants have a passion for making a difference.”
Going forward
While there is little consensus on how the recruitment environment will develop through 2025, one thing is clear: the industry needs new recruits and can offer huge opportunities. However, it also needs more certainty, commitment from government, and investment.
However 2025 pans out, the industry will need to balance the challenges of an ageing workforce, skills shortages, and economic uncertainty with proactive recruitment and training initiatives.
Image credit: AdobeStock/amorn
